The Cynic
A cynical spin on the news.
Friday, November 05, 2004

Shameless Self-Promotions

Since I'm done with politics for at least a couple weeks, I figure I'll at least throw up my column today, it's about the NBA in case you don't want to read it.

Despite the last couple of days, I've got a lot of good things coming up. My birthday is next week and I'm heading to Vegas on the 17th so I'm going to continue to live my life and I expect you to
as well. However, if post-election blues are too much to overcome naturally, I suggest watching The Distinguished Gentleman like I did. It's one of Murphy's last funny performances in more "adult" films. This is pre-Daddy Day Care stuff. Also it's a cheap DVD to buy ($5.99 rack).

I can't believe 2004 is almost behind us, I tell you the years move by so quickly these days. This year was almost a blur. I remember the Olympics and the election, did anything else of note happen this year?

Who knows what's happening in 2005. I finally might have a way out of the newsprint business. I need to get with my people though, it would require a lot of moving and travel but I think success is imminent.

Anyway, nothing new from me. I leave the ranting to Mudge and I think Blair is still sedated by the Red Sox victory.


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Wednesday, November 03, 2004

A Mandate for the Same

President Bush is narrowly re-elected. It was a wild day with the biggest black eyes for exit pollsters. I wanted Kerry to win. I believed he'd be more able to unite the country at home, more fiscally conservative, more socially inclusive, and better able to rally the world in a more focused war on terror. I still do. But a slim majority of Americans disagreed. And I'm a big believer in the deep wisdom of the American people. They voted in huge numbers, and they made a judgment. Not a huge and decisive victory by any means. But at least a victory that is unlikely to be challenged. The president and his aides deserve congratulations. And so, I think, does Senator Kerry, whose campaign exceeded the low expectations of many of us. -- Andrew Sullivan

I know Mudge and Blair are pissed. I know my family is pissed. I guess I'm extremely frustrated but much like Andrew, I trust the American people and by a majority they knew what they wanted.

Obviously this isn't what I wanted, but this is a difficult time in this country. We are in the middle of a war with no uncertain end, I do believe we are headed towards a draft. I don't believe Bush will decide to back out in order to avoid that. I don't believe the economy will improve much, but one thing I learned from the 80s and early 90s is that a policy change in four years can erase 12 years of mismanagement.

The Democratic Party is lost, no direction at all. They have run away from being liberal, a word that has been successfully demonized by Karl Rove, and have run into a wall of uncertainty. I believe America has taken some steps backwards and the left has to move backward as well in order to move forward. Call it a two steps back, three steps forward approach. The party needs a leader who can re-energize his base all while reaching out to the members of the party who feel like they don't have a say in the current scheme of things.

I am resting my hopes of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana. A former two-term governor of Indiana just won his second term in the Senate. Part of a family legacy in Indiana, Bayh's appeal as a legislator and a person can reach nationally. He meets the party's standards by being tough on social issues but flexible on those moral issues that divide our country. Call him the master of the compromise.

As for this one, I can count the mistakes made by Kerry on many hands. He ran a good campaign, better than I thought he could at times, (I mean he was behind Al Sharpton in polling at one point). But he made many mistakes and submitted in areas that he shouldn't have. I believe John Edwards was a mistake, an area where Kerry backed down to the voices of a few rather than listen to his heart and go with Gephardt. Would Gephardt had made a difference? Maybe...maybe not. But it was Kerry's race to run and I don't believe he ran it like he wanted to.

Edwards wasn't ready for a national election. He doesn't have a base. Southern Democrats don't particularly care for him, Northern Democrats don't know him. To his credit he parlayed a couple of decent speeches into a run as a VP, but the party was too eager to use Edwards as their next Clinton when he didn't have the appeal nor the skills as a speaker. I'm not going to get into any more of the mistakes because it's over and time to move on. President Bush has a lot of problems he needs to fix.

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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

The Motherload...

One blog file until the finish...

1:05 a.m.

ABC, NBC goes with FOX, not surprising again. I'm not conceding anything...Ohio is going to be a difficult road ahead...As for the blog. I'm closing it up for the night.

12:49 p.m.

FOX strikes again. They call Ohio for Bush. No one else is going to buy it this time though. Hell CNN isn't even biting on Oregon...much less Ohio. Obviously Ohio is a big prize and it could get very very nasty...

12:40 p.m.

CNN calls Oregon for Kerry and Colorado for Bush. Me thinks CNN is really taken that whole "liberal slant" stigma too seriously.

12:39 p.m.

It's funny that even FOX is calling New Hampshire and Minnesota and Oregon for Kerry but CNN can't.

12:31 p.m.

Well Dennis Hastert's chins have apparently joined us.

12:26 p.m.

CNN calls Alaska to Bush, yeah I'm shocked...AP calls Oregon for Kerry...CNN is afraid, they are little bitches man... FOX News isn't this bad, hell they call Bush the winner three nights ago.

12:10 p.m.

CNN gives Florida to Bush and it was done comfortably and without counting absentees...See Jamie, don't ever vote absentee in this state....PLEASE get Karen Hughes off my screen. And GET RID OF THOSE STUPID MOUTHPIECES!....Even the flunkies in the Bush party think they are secret service men.

12:09 p.m.

CNN calls Arizona to Bush...So their scoreboard (and the only one I'm using) is 207-188. James Carville: "John Kerry is gonna have to draw an inside straight"...Truer words have never been spoken...


11:44 p.m.

According to a friend, ABC has called Florida for Bush and won't turn back...I think are correct. This obviously puts Kerry in dire straits. Ohio went from being a hope to an absolute must.

11:39 p.m.

I thought about something. In 2000 blue won the close senate races (Carnahan in Missouri, Stabenow in Washington) and lost the presidency. In 2004 the red team has taken all the close races thus far. Exit polls lie and Zogby (yeah, I cheated), who called around a 100-point Kerry win, might be a little off.


11:07 p.m.

I'm thinking that Florida is a lost hope for the blue. It might not be shady this time, Bush may have out and out won...There are a ton of absentee ballots here and I begged people not to do them because it's shady...No reckless projections by CNN...They are even being overly cautious in places like Oregon.

11:00 p.m.

Next group of updates in, Kerry wins the pot of gold in California and 55 votes, Bush wins Idaho. Scoreboard tightens considerably at 197-188 Bush. I expect Oregon, Washington and Hawaii to go blue in the next 60 minutes.

10:52 p.m.

Kerry grabs Pennsylvania and does it surprisingly easy. Now the eyes really shift to Ohio...C'mon guys...Think of Nixon, dead Kent State students...It could happen again and who's going to write the song?? Nickleback? Scoreboard 193-133 to Bush.


10:46 p.m.

New Hampshire inched a little closer to the center. Kerry is basically holding on by a thread there. Tom Daschle is in a fight for his political life. We're about 10 minutes away from some projections. I expected Pennsylvania to go blue between 11 and midnight. Florida might go red before 1 a.m.


10:35 p.m.

Kerry is smoking Bush in Pennsylvania, this could be a projection at 11 p.m. Could it bode well for the future, we'll see.

10:27 p.m.

I'm on this until 10:30...193-112...Both Wisconsin and Minnesota look like they are tilting blue. Kerry might've rode Russ Feingold's coattails and got a huge turnover...I've got a couple of insiders saying that Kerry has Wisconsin.

I'm just stalling until the 10:30 updates..

Still stalling...Maybe there aren't any...Oh well, if you haven't voted yet...Vote for Kerry.


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Okay a damn state roundup...

Adding Arkansas and Missouri (red) in the fold...

Red States:
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Total: 193 votes

Blue States:
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington D.C.
Illinois
Maine (3)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
(Maine is split electorals, Kerry hasn't won a fourth electoral yet)
Total: 112 votes

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Clock Strikes 10...

...And I'm looking at Ohio and Florida...Mudge is looking at Ohio and Florida...

Florida...Florida...Florida..

States are closing. I promised a roundup, I'll do it shortly. Bush is up 176-112. Everything is going as expected with the exception of Missouri. Missouri is very interesting, especially considering Kerry conceded the state three weeks ago.

Mudge said John Edwards didn't look happy. I say he's been a horrible anchor and his appeal was vastly overrated.

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9 is alive...

We'll do a state roundup after this one...

Every has come down to Ohio and Florida and unsurprisingly both sides seem to like their positions, of course there's a LONG way to go.

Scoreboard has Bush at 155-112, no shockers yet. I'll do a state roundup soon.

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More Red

Bush gets North Carolina. So any chance of pulling a sneaky one out of the South isn't going to happen. Basically this proves a point I had much much earlier.

I never felt like Edwards was strong enough to really challenge Bush in the deep South, he lacked the name recognition.

I think Ohio is going to decide this...I hope my forecast is right.



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8:30 is upon us..

CNN thinks it's been a long night already and I agree with them.

Candy Crowley is always wearing a massive overcoat. No matter what time of year, what location, indoor, outdoor, always wearing an overcome. Not that I'm begging for Crowley to show skin or anything (believe me I'm not) but what's with the super coats...

I wonder if Vanessa Kerry is bitter that Ann Coulter stole her look. I know I'd be.

Virginia and South Carolina are red, so Bush is up 87-77. Apparently some have called Arkansas red and others are holding off.

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Early state roundup...

Red States:
Oklahoma
Alabama
Georgia
West Virginia
Tennessee
Indiana
Kentucky
Vote total = 66

Blue States:
Connecticut
Washington D.C.
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
Illinois (not Michigan as I said earlier)
Maine
Massachusetts
Vermont
Vote total = 77

BTW on a side note: Barrack Obama won the Illinois Senate seat over right wing wacko Alan Keyes...yeah I'm shocked too...


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8'o'clock hour is upon us...

...and I'm not as confident as I was yesterday. I'm sure I'm just worrying too much.

CNN just had the Ed Gillespie hour. He was wearing the super toolish mouthpiece, I have no clue what he said, probably the same shit he says all the time.

But I love that guy, he looks thrilled to be here. I bet he's annoying as fuck, he's always checking on the president's whereabouts and the secret service wants to shoot him once this is over. I'm sure the average conversation goes like this.

Gillespie: I need the pres' 20..

SS Man: He's in his office...the same place he's been for the last forty fucking times you've asked...Leave us alone you dork!

Gillespie: Thanks guys.

8 p.m. is here and Kerry gets funky like a monkey. First Bush takes more of the deep south with Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and Oklahoma.

Kerry grabs New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, Maryland among others. I'll do a full state total shortly. Scoreboard is tenatively Kerry 77-66

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More States...

Actually just one. West Virginia, a former Democratic stronghold is as red as a cherry. Bush leads 39-3

Now CNN is playing this very close to the vest. At this point they might wait until Thanksgiving to project a winner. Lots of gibberish about how they've transformed and created a bigger, better, monster...I mean you would think these guys miss the call on a nuclear bombing...It was just Florida....It's not a big deal, trust me...I live here.

For some levity, I've decided to add Air America Radio into my media blitz tonight.

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On all night...

...or as long as Blogger holds up.

My station of choice tonight is CNN, I was going to go CNN and FOX on equal time but FOX will annoy me to no end. So it's all CNN, all the time.

So far, something surprising. I believe Bush took Kentucky, Indiana and Georgia while Kerry grabbed Vermont I believe.

But Virginia, which was on my board as a solid red is too close to call. I heard something about this last week but I was skeptical. South Carolina is also not ready to be called, but I expect it will go red.

Scoreboard is Bush 34, Kerry 3, at the end of the first.

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Ahh The Day...

Well I'm sure people want to know what Corey does on Election Day to keep the anxiety down. Well surprising I went to work, hit some precincts to talk to people. The good news is things in this area of Florida seem to be going swimmingly in terms of people getting in and out of the polls with anyone (GOP) bothering them (black voters).

I voted, thankfully I live in a mostly white district so I wasn't bothered, if I was I would've beaten the shit out of the guy or at least tried to.

Anyway, I'm done with polls. No trips to Zogby or the Electoral Predictor for me today. I'm going to watch a Bill Maher episode I missed this season and make some dinner. What happens happens, everyone blue has tried to sway undecided voters and everyone red has done the same.

I'm also checking out David Boyle's stuff. His music is pure genius (G.W.P., Rappenheit 911) but his website is pure awful. My friend Stephanie should offer him her webworking services so he could make some money. He's got the video for G.W.P up, it's got the whole INXS/Bob Dylan thing with visual aids. He looks a lot like Rick Rubin. I suggest we all buy his songs for a buck (actually .99) through PayPal. Sure they are low-production and a little lacking of quality but they are entertaining as hell (who else is rhyming 'naive' and Abu Ghraib?) and how many times have you spent $14 for a CD that sucks? See.

I need Blair and Mudge to drop me an email if they get this before 7 p.m.

Have fun.

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Election Predictor Part 3: Electoral Boogaloo 2


Only one can win.

"It's a virtual dead heat."
"It's going to come down to the battleground states."
"All eyes on Florida and Ohio" -- Every single news network, pollster, baller, shot-caller, buster, mark-ass busters, etc.

It's down to those toss-ups. Will they lean red, will they lean blue, who knows?

First of all I must say that if you live in a red or blue state please vote for your candidate regardless, because the popular vote is very important.

No time for chatter, let's jump right into it!

Hawaii -- The beautiful islands give four us electoral votes. It went blue in 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1980, 1976... you get the point. It ain't going red regardless of what reports said. I'm calling this blue.

New Hampshire -- Interesting state and how did New Hampshire get so fucking important anyway? The New Hampshire primaries, etc. You would think it's more than four electoral votes. State went red in 2000, but with a Massachusetts Senator on the ballot, it's a barely call for blue.

Nevada -- Could be interesting, at five electoral votes it's not a major prize but in a close election, every vote counts. This state could decide on a big turnout from hookers, hookers tend to lean left, but this state goes red.

New Mexico -- A dead heat in a state with five electoral votes. Just barely went for Gore in 2000. New Mexico hasn't tipped it's hand, leaning a little red but mostly staying white. This state has recount all over it so I'm tenatively calling it blue.

Arkansas -- A state which disturbingly went red in 2000 despite having a local as the outgoing incumbent. Arkansas has stayed red although it's a lighter shade thanks to a last ditch effort by Arkansas' favorite son. In the end, it stays red as the Democrats continue to lose their grip on the south.

Iowa -- One time Democratic stronghold has inched right for years. Gore barely won it in 2000 but that could change in 2004 because Iowa is starting to get sucked up in that glob of land with Nebraska and the Dakotas. We'll bite our tongue and say red.

Colorado -- A tale of two worlds. One part is very liberal, mostly based around the space around Boulder and the minority areas of Denver. The other is conservative. It's odd that a state which has such a strong sense of environment would vote right but stranger things have happened. The referendum of splitting electorals will not pass so these nine electoral votes will barely go red.

Minnesota -- One of the great political states in America. Elected both Hubert Humphrey and Jesse "The Body" Ventura as governor. The left lost ground there in 2002 when Sen. Paul Wellstone's tragically died in a lane crash two months before his senate race. Today the left gets some momentum back and a huge victory (and 10 electorals) for the blue.

Wisconsin -- Talk about an undecided state. Gore took this state in 2000 by roughly 20,000 votes. It could be even closer this time. Much like Colorado, this state is polarized from the bottom 1/8 of the state and the other 7/8s. Luckily for the left, more people live in the bottom eighth and the state's 10 electoral votes go BARELY blue.

Missouri -- This is America's great state. There is the great urban inner city of St. Louis, the beef people in Kansas City, the farmers in the Ozarks. It's a little bit of everything. Unpredictable as ever, in 2000 Missouri decided a dead Carnahan was better than a living Ashcroft. Barely went red in 2000, the prize of 11 electorals go there again.

New Jersey -- Not sure how much of a toss up it is. It's went anywhere from strong blue to barely blue. It was major blue in 2000, not so much in 2004. Maybe it bears watching in 2008 as those 15 electorals probably will grow by one or two. Still blue.

Michigan -- Much like New Jersey it's been strong blue to barely blue but Michigan's 17 electoral votes seem to like the color of Piston blue.

Ohio -- This is the major prize. No Republican has won the presidency without this state. Even on this day, Bush is doing one final campaign stop hoping to grab these 20 electorals. Bush won this state by four points in 2000 but there was before thousands of jobs were lost. Note: Ohio's call for Clinton in 1992 clinched the election for him, will history repeat itself in 2004. I'm calling blue.

Pennsylvania -- Had been a major toss up but it seems like the reds have almost conceded these 21 electorals because the blue is so strong in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Moderate thinking bunch can be swayed, but I say blue by 4-5 points.

Florida -- Our old friend and my state of residence. Took 36 days to figure this out in 2000, might take longer in 2004. A statistic dead heat throughout, Florida hasn't tipped its hand. Bush has an advantage because his brother is the governor. Bush has a disadvantage because his brother is governor. When it comes down to it a larger turnout in the Republican panhandle keeps Florida red...but not without controversy from people like me.

Final tally.

Red States:
Nevada = 5 votes
Arkansas = 6 votes
Iowa = 7 votes
Colorado = 9 votes
Missouri = 11 votes
Florida = 27 votes
Previous electorals = 196 votes
Total electoral votes = 261 votes

Blue States:
Hawaii = 4 votes
New Hampshire = 4 votes
New Mexico = 5 votes
Minnesota = 10 votes
Wisconsin = 1o votes
New Jersey = 15 votes
Michigan = 17 votes
Ohio = 20 votes
Pennsylvania = 21 votes
Previous electorals = 171 votes
Total electoral votes = 277 votes.

And I'm picking John Kerry to be the 44th president of this great country. But I could be wrong. God willing, I'm not.

Go vote and be respectful of each other.

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Sunday, October 31, 2004

Election Predictor Part 2: Electoral Boogaloo

"This is an impressive crowd - the haves and the have-mores. Some people call you the elites; I call you my base." -- G-Dub

Okay, We're getting into the meat now. Like I said earlier, about 38 states are already pre-determined so this whole "every vote counts" thing is bullshit (thanks George Carlin).

Part 2 resolves around each candidates "base" or the people in the bank that make up the majority of the electorate. Like you'll never see Bush caught dead in North Dakota, even those it's "his" state. Why bother? It's only 3 or 4 stinking electoral votes. However, Bush will take the occasional run through Georgia during the season because a lot of people live in Georgia and he must guarantee that his base is energized there.

Bush's money pot is basically the South and Texas...As a matter of fact it's simple to explain why his base is the South but if you look at the Eastern seaboard, Bush's popularity grows as each state's academic reputation decreases. Those are his type of people, the ones who think "suiciders" is a word. These are also people who go to church a lot and believe anyone who claims "god" has told them something. Pat Robertson and Billy Graham are big in these parts as are assualt rifles and Dale Earnhardt (Sr. and Jr.). Another name for this group are the Rovians -- they really believe John McCain has a orphan full of black kids he's fathered. Bush people are generally into traditional 19th century family values and civil war reenactment productions.

Kerry's cash cow is a little more spread out..It's most of New England and the Mid-Atlantic (save New Hampshire and Pennsylvania), along with midwestern Illinois and and pacific coastal California...Kerry owns two of the three biggest states in terms of population (California and New York) and he generally does well in urban areas as he is heavily endorsed by most of the hip-hop community and working class (people who do have a vote despite what you heard). Big time union folk here and the occasional mafia family. Kerry's base is a little more diverse, it consists of minorities, single parents, etc...They are realist, they want a little better than what they've got.

Both bases have underfinanced voters. The red base seems to vote red out of envy. Bush is the millionaire they aspire to be. The blue base seems to vote blue out of realism, they want a raise and a three-bedroom house instead of a two-bedroom co-op. No need to be a millionaire, just live comfortably.

So....The Red Base is:
West Virginia = 5 votes
Virginia = 13 votes
North Carolina = 15 votes
South Carolina = 8 votes
Texas = 34 votes
Alabama = 9 votes
Georgia = 15 votes
Tennessee = 11 votes
Louisiana = 9 votes
Mississippi = 6 votes
Kentucky = 8 votes
Indiana = 11 votes
Arizona = 10 votes
Uninhibited base = 42 votes
Total Electoral Votes = 196 votes

And the Blue Base:
Washington = 11 votes
Oregon = 7 votes
California = 55 votes
New York = 31 votes
Illinois = 21 votes
Massachusetts = 12 votes
Maryland = 10 votes
Uninhibited base = 24 votes
Total Electoral Votes = 171 votes

So far things are pretty tight. There are a couple that could probably go blue but with 35 states and one district down. It's time for Part 3...The only part that counts in some areas...The toss-up states.

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and drag the truth out of it.


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