The Cynic
A cynical spin on the news.
Sunday, October 31, 2004

Election Predictor Part 2: Electoral Boogaloo

"This is an impressive crowd - the haves and the have-mores. Some people call you the elites; I call you my base." -- G-Dub

Okay, We're getting into the meat now. Like I said earlier, about 38 states are already pre-determined so this whole "every vote counts" thing is bullshit (thanks George Carlin).

Part 2 resolves around each candidates "base" or the people in the bank that make up the majority of the electorate. Like you'll never see Bush caught dead in North Dakota, even those it's "his" state. Why bother? It's only 3 or 4 stinking electoral votes. However, Bush will take the occasional run through Georgia during the season because a lot of people live in Georgia and he must guarantee that his base is energized there.

Bush's money pot is basically the South and Texas...As a matter of fact it's simple to explain why his base is the South but if you look at the Eastern seaboard, Bush's popularity grows as each state's academic reputation decreases. Those are his type of people, the ones who think "suiciders" is a word. These are also people who go to church a lot and believe anyone who claims "god" has told them something. Pat Robertson and Billy Graham are big in these parts as are assualt rifles and Dale Earnhardt (Sr. and Jr.). Another name for this group are the Rovians -- they really believe John McCain has a orphan full of black kids he's fathered. Bush people are generally into traditional 19th century family values and civil war reenactment productions.

Kerry's cash cow is a little more spread out..It's most of New England and the Mid-Atlantic (save New Hampshire and Pennsylvania), along with midwestern Illinois and and pacific coastal California...Kerry owns two of the three biggest states in terms of population (California and New York) and he generally does well in urban areas as he is heavily endorsed by most of the hip-hop community and working class (people who do have a vote despite what you heard). Big time union folk here and the occasional mafia family. Kerry's base is a little more diverse, it consists of minorities, single parents, etc...They are realist, they want a little better than what they've got.

Both bases have underfinanced voters. The red base seems to vote red out of envy. Bush is the millionaire they aspire to be. The blue base seems to vote blue out of realism, they want a raise and a three-bedroom house instead of a two-bedroom co-op. No need to be a millionaire, just live comfortably.

So....The Red Base is:
West Virginia = 5 votes
Virginia = 13 votes
North Carolina = 15 votes
South Carolina = 8 votes
Texas = 34 votes
Alabama = 9 votes
Georgia = 15 votes
Tennessee = 11 votes
Louisiana = 9 votes
Mississippi = 6 votes
Kentucky = 8 votes
Indiana = 11 votes
Arizona = 10 votes
Uninhibited base = 42 votes
Total Electoral Votes = 196 votes

And the Blue Base:
Washington = 11 votes
Oregon = 7 votes
California = 55 votes
New York = 31 votes
Illinois = 21 votes
Massachusetts = 12 votes
Maryland = 10 votes
Uninhibited base = 24 votes
Total Electoral Votes = 171 votes

So far things are pretty tight. There are a couple that could probably go blue but with 35 states and one district down. It's time for Part 3...The only part that counts in some areas...The toss-up states.

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About Us

I take the news
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Previously...

Election Predictor Part 1...

A Whole Load of Junk..

Congrats to the Sox...It's a historic day in sport...

Ode to Brew

Bad Joke

Hey, this isn't how the script goes

1918....1918...Who's Your Daddy? The Curse... The ...

If You Don't Know...

Where to Now?

What Time is a Good Time?



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