The Cynic
A cynical spin on the news.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Election Predictor Part 3: Electoral Boogaloo 2


Only one can win.

"It's a virtual dead heat."
"It's going to come down to the battleground states."
"All eyes on Florida and Ohio" -- Every single news network, pollster, baller, shot-caller, buster, mark-ass busters, etc.

It's down to those toss-ups. Will they lean red, will they lean blue, who knows?

First of all I must say that if you live in a red or blue state please vote for your candidate regardless, because the popular vote is very important.

No time for chatter, let's jump right into it!

Hawaii -- The beautiful islands give four us electoral votes. It went blue in 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1980, 1976... you get the point. It ain't going red regardless of what reports said. I'm calling this blue.

New Hampshire -- Interesting state and how did New Hampshire get so fucking important anyway? The New Hampshire primaries, etc. You would think it's more than four electoral votes. State went red in 2000, but with a Massachusetts Senator on the ballot, it's a barely call for blue.

Nevada -- Could be interesting, at five electoral votes it's not a major prize but in a close election, every vote counts. This state could decide on a big turnout from hookers, hookers tend to lean left, but this state goes red.

New Mexico -- A dead heat in a state with five electoral votes. Just barely went for Gore in 2000. New Mexico hasn't tipped it's hand, leaning a little red but mostly staying white. This state has recount all over it so I'm tenatively calling it blue.

Arkansas -- A state which disturbingly went red in 2000 despite having a local as the outgoing incumbent. Arkansas has stayed red although it's a lighter shade thanks to a last ditch effort by Arkansas' favorite son. In the end, it stays red as the Democrats continue to lose their grip on the south.

Iowa -- One time Democratic stronghold has inched right for years. Gore barely won it in 2000 but that could change in 2004 because Iowa is starting to get sucked up in that glob of land with Nebraska and the Dakotas. We'll bite our tongue and say red.

Colorado -- A tale of two worlds. One part is very liberal, mostly based around the space around Boulder and the minority areas of Denver. The other is conservative. It's odd that a state which has such a strong sense of environment would vote right but stranger things have happened. The referendum of splitting electorals will not pass so these nine electoral votes will barely go red.

Minnesota -- One of the great political states in America. Elected both Hubert Humphrey and Jesse "The Body" Ventura as governor. The left lost ground there in 2002 when Sen. Paul Wellstone's tragically died in a lane crash two months before his senate race. Today the left gets some momentum back and a huge victory (and 10 electorals) for the blue.

Wisconsin -- Talk about an undecided state. Gore took this state in 2000 by roughly 20,000 votes. It could be even closer this time. Much like Colorado, this state is polarized from the bottom 1/8 of the state and the other 7/8s. Luckily for the left, more people live in the bottom eighth and the state's 10 electoral votes go BARELY blue.

Missouri -- This is America's great state. There is the great urban inner city of St. Louis, the beef people in Kansas City, the farmers in the Ozarks. It's a little bit of everything. Unpredictable as ever, in 2000 Missouri decided a dead Carnahan was better than a living Ashcroft. Barely went red in 2000, the prize of 11 electorals go there again.

New Jersey -- Not sure how much of a toss up it is. It's went anywhere from strong blue to barely blue. It was major blue in 2000, not so much in 2004. Maybe it bears watching in 2008 as those 15 electorals probably will grow by one or two. Still blue.

Michigan -- Much like New Jersey it's been strong blue to barely blue but Michigan's 17 electoral votes seem to like the color of Piston blue.

Ohio -- This is the major prize. No Republican has won the presidency without this state. Even on this day, Bush is doing one final campaign stop hoping to grab these 20 electorals. Bush won this state by four points in 2000 but there was before thousands of jobs were lost. Note: Ohio's call for Clinton in 1992 clinched the election for him, will history repeat itself in 2004. I'm calling blue.

Pennsylvania -- Had been a major toss up but it seems like the reds have almost conceded these 21 electorals because the blue is so strong in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Moderate thinking bunch can be swayed, but I say blue by 4-5 points.

Florida -- Our old friend and my state of residence. Took 36 days to figure this out in 2000, might take longer in 2004. A statistic dead heat throughout, Florida hasn't tipped its hand. Bush has an advantage because his brother is the governor. Bush has a disadvantage because his brother is governor. When it comes down to it a larger turnout in the Republican panhandle keeps Florida red...but not without controversy from people like me.

Final tally.

Red States:
Nevada = 5 votes
Arkansas = 6 votes
Iowa = 7 votes
Colorado = 9 votes
Missouri = 11 votes
Florida = 27 votes
Previous electorals = 196 votes
Total electoral votes = 261 votes

Blue States:
Hawaii = 4 votes
New Hampshire = 4 votes
New Mexico = 5 votes
Minnesota = 10 votes
Wisconsin = 1o votes
New Jersey = 15 votes
Michigan = 17 votes
Ohio = 20 votes
Pennsylvania = 21 votes
Previous electorals = 171 votes
Total electoral votes = 277 votes.

And I'm picking John Kerry to be the 44th president of this great country. But I could be wrong. God willing, I'm not.

Go vote and be respectful of each other.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


About Us

I take the news
and drag the truth out of it.


Previously...

Election Predictor Part 2: Electoral Boogaloo

Election Predictor Part 1...

A Whole Load of Junk..

Congrats to the Sox...It's a historic day in sport...

Ode to Brew

Bad Joke

Hey, this isn't how the script goes

1918....1918...Who's Your Daddy? The Curse... The ...

If You Don't Know...

Where to Now?



Archives


02/08/2004 - 02/15/2004

02/15/2004 - 02/22/2004

02/22/2004 - 02/29/2004

02/29/2004 - 03/07/2004

03/07/2004 - 03/14/2004

03/14/2004 - 03/21/2004

03/21/2004 - 03/28/2004

03/28/2004 - 04/04/2004

05/02/2004 - 05/09/2004

05/09/2004 - 05/16/2004

05/16/2004 - 05/23/2004

05/23/2004 - 05/30/2004

05/30/2004 - 06/06/2004

06/06/2004 - 06/13/2004

06/13/2004 - 06/20/2004

06/27/2004 - 07/04/2004

07/04/2004 - 07/11/2004

07/11/2004 - 07/18/2004

07/18/2004 - 07/25/2004

07/25/2004 - 08/01/2004

08/01/2004 - 08/08/2004

08/15/2004 - 08/22/2004

08/22/2004 - 08/29/2004

08/29/2004 - 09/05/2004

09/05/2004 - 09/12/2004

09/12/2004 - 09/19/2004

09/19/2004 - 09/26/2004

09/26/2004 - 10/03/2004

10/03/2004 - 10/10/2004

10/10/2004 - 10/17/2004

10/17/2004 - 10/24/2004

10/24/2004 - 10/31/2004

10/31/2004 - 11/07/2004

11/07/2004 - 11/14/2004

11/14/2004 - 11/21/2004

11/21/2004 - 11/28/2004

11/28/2004 - 12/05/2004

12/05/2004 - 12/12/2004

12/12/2004 - 12/19/2004

12/19/2004 - 12/26/2004

12/26/2004 - 01/02/2005

01/02/2005 - 01/09/2005

01/09/2005 - 01/16/2005

01/16/2005 - 01/23/2005

01/23/2005 - 01/30/2005

01/30/2005 - 02/06/2005

02/06/2005 - 02/13/2005

02/13/2005 - 02/20/2005

02/20/2005 - 02/27/2005

02/27/2005 - 03/06/2005

03/06/2005 - 03/13/2005

03/13/2005 - 03/20/2005

03/20/2005 - 03/27/2005

03/27/2005 - 04/03/2005

04/03/2005 - 04/10/2005

04/10/2005 - 04/17/2005

04/17/2005 - 04/24/2005

04/24/2005 - 05/01/2005

05/01/2005 - 05/08/2005

05/08/2005 - 05/15/2005

05/15/2005 - 05/22/2005

05/22/2005 - 05/29/2005

05/29/2005 - 06/05/2005

06/05/2005 - 06/12/2005

06/12/2005 - 06/19/2005

06/19/2005 - 06/26/2005

06/26/2005 - 07/03/2005

07/03/2005 - 07/10/2005

07/10/2005 - 07/17/2005

07/17/2005 - 07/24/2005

07/24/2005 - 07/31/2005

07/31/2005 - 08/07/2005

08/07/2005 - 08/14/2005

08/14/2005 - 08/21/2005

08/21/2005 - 08/28/2005

08/28/2005 - 09/04/2005

09/04/2005 - 09/11/2005

09/18/2005 - 09/25/2005

10/02/2005 - 10/09/2005

10/09/2005 - 10/16/2005

10/16/2005 - 10/23/2005

10/23/2005 - 10/30/2005

10/30/2005 - 11/06/2005

11/06/2005 - 11/13/2005

11/13/2005 - 11/20/2005

11/20/2005 - 11/27/2005

11/27/2005 - 12/04/2005

12/04/2005 - 12/11/2005

12/11/2005 - 12/18/2005

12/18/2005 - 12/25/2005

12/25/2005 - 01/01/2006

01/01/2006 - 01/08/2006

01/08/2006 - 01/15/2006

01/15/2006 - 01/22/2006

01/22/2006 - 01/29/2006

02/12/2006 - 02/19/2006

02/19/2006 - 02/26/2006

02/26/2006 - 03/05/2006

03/05/2006 - 03/12/2006

03/12/2006 - 03/19/2006

03/19/2006 - 03/26/2006

03/26/2006 - 04/02/2006

04/09/2006 - 04/16/2006

04/16/2006 - 04/23/2006

04/23/2006 - 04/30/2006

04/30/2006 - 05/07/2006

05/07/2006 - 05/14/2006

05/21/2006 - 05/28/2006

05/28/2006 - 06/04/2006

06/04/2006 - 06/11/2006

06/11/2006 - 06/18/2006

07/02/2006 - 07/09/2006

07/09/2006 - 07/16/2006

07/23/2006 - 07/30/2006

07/30/2006 - 08/06/2006

08/06/2006 - 08/13/2006

08/20/2006 - 08/27/2006

08/27/2006 - 09/03/2006

09/03/2006 - 09/10/2006

09/10/2006 - 09/17/2006

09/17/2006 - 09/24/2006

09/24/2006 - 10/01/2006

10/15/2006 - 10/22/2006

10/22/2006 - 10/29/2006

10/29/2006 - 11/05/2006

11/05/2006 - 11/12/2006

11/26/2006 - 12/03/2006

12/10/2006 - 12/17/2006

12/17/2006 - 12/24/2006

12/24/2006 - 12/31/2006

12/31/2006 - 01/07/2007

01/07/2007 - 01/14/2007

01/14/2007 - 01/21/2007

01/21/2007 - 01/28/2007

01/28/2007 - 02/04/2007

02/04/2007 - 02/11/2007

02/11/2007 - 02/18/2007

02/18/2007 - 02/25/2007

02/25/2007 - 03/04/2007

03/11/2007 - 03/18/2007

03/18/2007 - 03/25/2007

03/25/2007 - 04/01/2007

04/01/2007 - 04/08/2007

04/08/2007 - 04/15/2007

04/15/2007 - 04/22/2007

04/22/2007 - 04/29/2007

04/29/2007 - 05/06/2007

05/20/2007 - 05/27/2007

06/03/2007 - 06/10/2007

06/10/2007 - 06/17/2007

06/17/2007 - 06/24/2007

07/01/2007 - 07/08/2007

07/15/2007 - 07/22/2007

07/22/2007 - 07/29/2007

07/29/2007 - 08/05/2007

08/05/2007 - 08/12/2007

08/12/2007 - 08/19/2007

09/23/2007 - 09/30/2007

09/30/2007 - 10/07/2007

10/28/2007 - 11/04/2007

11/04/2007 - 11/11/2007

11/11/2007 - 11/18/2007

11/18/2007 - 11/25/2007

12/23/2007 - 12/30/2007

01/27/2008 - 02/03/2008

03/02/2008 - 03/09/2008

03/09/2008 - 03/16/2008

03/23/2008 - 03/30/2008

04/13/2008 - 04/20/2008

04/20/2008 - 04/27/2008

04/27/2008 - 05/04/2008

05/04/2008 - 05/11/2008

05/18/2008 - 05/25/2008

06/22/2008 - 06/29/2008

06/29/2008 - 07/06/2008

01/18/2009 - 01/25/2009

01/25/2009 - 02/01/2009

02/01/2009 - 02/08/2009

02/15/2009 - 02/22/2009

05/02/2010 - 05/09/2010

01/20/2013 - 01/27/2013

08/09/2015 - 08/16/2015

08/16/2015 - 08/23/2015

08/30/2015 - 09/06/2015

home


Syndicate

Syndicate The Cynic


Where to Go




Credits

Powered by Blogger